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 Bayesian inference


The 10 Algorithms Machine Learning Engineers Need to Know

@machinelearnbot

Some of the most common examples of machine learning are Netflix's algorithms to make movie suggestions based on movies you have watched in the past or Amazon's algorithms that recommend books based on books you have bought before. The textbook that we used is one of the AI classics: Peter Norvig's Artificial Intelligence -- A Modern Approach, in which we covered major topics including intelligent agents, problem-solving by searching, adversarial search, probability theory, multi-agent systems, social AI, philosophy/ethics/future of AI. Machine learning algorithms can be divided into 3 broad categories -- supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning.Supervised learning is useful in cases where a property (label) is available for a certain dataset (training set), but is missing and needs to be predicted for other instances. You can think of linear regression as the task of fitting a straight line through a set of points.


Fitting Gaussian Process Models in Python

#artificialintelligence

A common applied statistics task involves building regression models to characterize non-linear relationships between variables. When we write a function that takes continuous values as inputs, we are essentially implying an infinite vector that only returns values (indexed by the inputs) when the function is called upon to do so. To make this notion of a "distribution over functions" more concrete, let's quickly demonstrate how we obtain realizations from a Gaussian process, which result in an evaluation of a function over a set of points. We are going generate realizations sequentially, point by point, using the lovely conditioning property of mutlivariate Gaussian distributions.


Everything that Works Works Because it's Bayesian: Why Deep Nets Generalize?

@machinelearnbot

We could not so far claim that deep networks trained with stochastic gradient descent are Bayesian. And it may be because SGD biases learning towards flat minima, rather than sharp minima. It turns out, (Hochreiter and Schmidhuber, 1997) motivated their work on seeking flat minima from a Bayesian, minimum description length perspective. Seeking flat minima makes sense from a minimum description length perspective.


How Bayesian Inference Works

@machinelearnbot

Since there are 25 long haired women and 2 long haired men, guessing that the ticket owner is a woman is a safe bet. To lay our foundation, we need to quickly mention four concepts: probabilities, conditional probabilities, joint probabilities and marginal probabilities. The probability of a thing happening is the number of ways that thing can happen divided by the total number of things that can happen. Combining these by multiplication gives the joint probability, P(woman with short hair) P(woman) * P(short hair woman).


Decision Making in Complex Multiagent Contexts: A Tale of Two Frameworks

Doshi, Prashant J. (University of Georgia)

AI Magazine

Decision making is a key feature of autonomous systems. The physical context often includes other interacting autonomous systems, typically called agents. In this article, I focus on decision making in a multiagent context with partial information about the problem. I put the two frameworks, decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (Dec-POMDP) and the interactive partially observable Markov decision process (I-POMDP), in context and review the foundational algorithms for these frameworks, while briefly discussing the advances in their specializations.


The 2002 Trading Agent Competition: An Overview of Agent Strategies

Greenwald, Amy

AI Magazine

This article summarizes 16 agent strategies that were designed for the 2002 Trading Agent Competition. Agent architects use numerous general-purpose AI techniques, including machine learning, planning, partially observable Markov decision processes, Monte Carlo simulations, and multiagent systems. Ultimately, the most successful agents were primarily heuristic based and domain specific.


Agent-Centered Search

Koenig, Sven

AI Magazine

In this article, I describe agent-centered search (also called real-time search or local search) and illustrate this planning paradigm with examples. Agent-centered search methods interleave planning and plan execution and restrict planning to the part of the domain around the current state of the agent, for example, the current location of a mobile robot or the current board position of a game. These methods can execute actions in the presence of time constraints and often have a small sum of planning and execution cost, both because they trade off planning and execution cost and because they allow agents to gather information early in nondeterministic domains, which reduces the amount of planning they have to perform for unencountered situations. Agent-centered search methods have been applied to a variety of domains, including traditional search, strips-type planning, moving-target search, planning with totally and partially observable Markov decision process models, reinforcement learning, constraint satisfaction, and robot navigation.


Reports on the AAAI Fall Symposia

Giacomo, Giuseppe De, desJardins, Marie, Canamero, Dolores, Wasson, Glenn, Littman, Michael, Allwein, Gerard, Marriott, Kim, Meyer, Bernd, Webb, Barbara, Consi, Tom

AI Magazine

The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) held its 1998 Fall Symposium Series on 23 to 25 October at the Omni Rosen Hotel in Orlando, Florida. This article contains summaries of seven of the symposia that were conducted: (1) Cognitive Robotics; (2) Distributed, Continual Planning; (3) Emotional and Intelligent: The Tangled Knot of Cognition; (4) Integrated Planning for Autonomous Agent Architectures; (5) Planning with Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes; (6) Reasoning with Visual and Diagrammatic Representations; and (7) Robotics and Biology: Developing Connections.


Inference in Bayesian Networks

D'Ambrosio, Bruce

AI Magazine

A Bayesian network is a compact, expressive representation of uncertain relationships among parameters in a domain. In this article, I introduce basic methods for computing with Bayesian networks, starting with the simple idea of summing the probabilities of events of interest. The article introduces major current methods for exact computation, briefly surveys approximation methods, and closes with a brief discussion of open issues.


An Overview of Some Recent Developments in Bayesian Problem-Solving Techniques

Haddawy, Peter

AI Magazine

The last few years have seen a surge in interest in the use of techniques from Bayesian decision theory to address problems in AI. Decision theory provides a normative framework for representing and reasoning about decision problems under uncertainty. The articles cover the topics of inference in Bayesian networks, decision-theoretic planning, and qualitative decision theory. Here, I provide a brief introduction to Bayesian networks and then cover applications of Bayesian problem-solving techniques, knowledge-based model construction and structured representations, and the learning of graphic probability models.